Industrial production down 14.6%
Monday, 16 March, 2009
Russia’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) dropped 14.6 percent in January and February 2009 compared to the same period last year, the Federal State Statistics Service reported. In February 2009, industrial production declined 13.2 percent year-on-year, down from a 16 percent fall in January 2009. The Federal State Statistics Service also published oil and gas production data. The output of oil and gas condensate was down 2.2 percent in January and February 2009, reaching 78.2 million tonnes. In 2008, Russia’s production of oil and gas condensate shrank 0.7 percent to 487.6 million tonnes.
The output of natural gas in January and February dropped 12.2 percent on the year, to 105 billion cubic meters. In February 2009, Russia’s gas output was down 9.7 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. In 2008, Russia saw a 1.6 percent increase in natural gas production, at 663 billion cubic meters, following a 0.8 percent decline in 2007. The Industrial Production Index is calculated for the following sectors: mineral production, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. It is based on the production results for 730 product categories.
The official ruble/euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Russia for March 17 is 45.1894 RUB/EUR, up RUB 0.26 from the previous level. The ruble/euro weighted average exchange rate for today deals stood at 45.10 RUR/EUR at the Unified Trading Session today, RUR 0.28 above Friday’s close. The market is expected to remain stable for the next few days, with neither big write-offs nor any significant influx of money expected. The Central Bank will hold unsecured loan auctions for 3-month and 5-week loans, worth RUB 2 billion and RUB 8 billion (approx. $57.5m and $230m), respectively. On the other hand, banks will have to repay RUB 14.8 billion (approx. $425.3m).
Traders are to make their single social tax and excise duty payments today. These are expected to come off smoothly, as well as the VAT payments due on March 20. Banks’ demand for rubles is unlikely to rise sharply. Most probably, the cash raised at the repo auction will be enough, according to analysts at Nomos Bank. On March 25, banks will have to pay a higher amount, RUB 275 billion (approx. $7.9bn), to say nothing of new tax payments.
The Central Bank will hold new unsecured loan auctions on March 23-24, ahead of the tax payments, but they will be small in scale. The Central Bank could use its tested method of holding a ‘long-term’ repo auction following its unsecured loan auctions, thus continuing its strategy of replacing unsecured loans with secured ones. “On the whole, banks look quite prepared for this week; they won’t be in urgent need of rubles, which means that the bi-currency basket is unlikely to come under pressure from the domestic market. At the same time, the ruble could decline tracking falling oil prices,” the experts predicted.
The Central Bank set the official dollar/ruble exchange rate at 34.8388 RUB/USD. As of 2:05 p.m., the ruble/euro weighted average exchange rate for today deals stood at 34.74 RUB/USD, RUB 0.05 above Friday’s closing level.
Source: http://www.cbonds.info/
